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« Year in Review: Movies | Main | Awards mailbag »

If the Oscars were held today: Friday morning quarterbacking

10:50 AM Fri, Dec 28, 2007 |  | 
Stephen Becker   E-mail   News tips

I'm starting to second-guess my confidence in Cate Blanchett's spot in the best actress field, though I have had her in the mix since I started my predicting. What's changed my thinking? I've been doing some heavy reading of theenvelope.com, the awards site run by the Los Angeles Times that puts all others to shame. On the site is a little section called The Buzzmeter, which polls various critics and insiders to see who they think will score the nominations. And let's just say the buzz isn't very good over there on Cate. The thinking, I think, is that she's a dead-solid lock for a supporting nomination for I'm Not There, and maybe Oscar voters want to spread the love a bit.
So who is the most likely candidate to replace Cate in the field? The smart money is on Keira Knightley from Atonement, but there also seems to be a swell of support for Amy Adams for Enchanted.
I suppose I would not be all that surprised to see both of them in the field, though I think with no Blanchett, Angelina Jolie will be able to fend either Adams or Knightley off.
What does it all mean? Julie Christie, Ellen Page and Marion Cotilliard are all still locks. The other two spots will come from some combination of Blanchett, Jolie, Knightley and Adams. If i had to pick today, I'd go with Jolie and Knightley for the final two.


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